Strategy Summary Aluminum: Electrolytic aluminum production enterprises mainly maintain stable production, and the growth rate of operating capacity has significantly slowed down. The current low aluminum ingot inventory continues to provide some support for aluminum prices. In the traditional peak season of consumption, the focus is on the actual driving situation of policies on the consumer end. It is recommended to treat it with a hedging strategy of buying on dips. Aluminum oxide: Recently, the supply of aluminum oxide has been disrupted in some areas. However, considering that the production capacity of Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises has been fully released, only 20 tons of replacement capacity are waiting to be put into operation, and downstream demand growth space is limited. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see at the current price level. Core viewpoints Market analysis In terms of aluminum spot, LME aluminum spot discount is $42.01 per ton. The SMMA00 aluminum price recorded 19490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot price of SMMA00 aluminum increased by 20 yuan/ton to 250 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the original aluminum price of SMM recorded 19410 yuan/ton, which was flat compared to the previous trading day. The spot price of SMM Zhongyuan Aluminum increased by 40 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the price of SMM Foshan Aluminum recorded 19250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot price of SMM Foshan aluminum increased by 20 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In terms of aluminum futures: On September 20th, the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum was opened at 19325 yuan/ton and closed at 19310 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Throughout the day, 131837 transactions were completed, a decrease of 4675 transactions compared to the previous trading day. The daily position was 216187 transactions, a decrease of 4688 transactions compared to the previous trading day. The in trade day price fluctuation is the main trend, with the highest price reaching 19330 yuan/ton and the lowest price reaching 19150 yuan/ton. In terms of night trading, the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum was opened at 19405 yuan/ton and closed at 19415 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton compared to yesterday afternoon, with strong fluctuations in night prices. Recently, aluminum prices have fluctuated at high levels, and we are paying attention to changes in pre holiday inventory and downstream stocking situation. In terms of supply, the incremental production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum operation is limited. In the early stage, theproduction capacity of Yunnan region has gradually released, and with the influx of imported goods, there is still pressure on the supply side. In terms of consumption, in the context of the traditional peak season of consumption, attention has been paid to the policy's boosting effect on actual consumption. Recently, the average downstream operating rate of the aluminum industry has slightly rebounded. As of September 18th, SMM has recorded a social inventory of 529000 tons of electrolytic aluminum ingots in China, an increase of 5000 tons compared to last week. As of September 20th, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3675 tons to 486150 tons compared to the previous trading day. In terms of spot alumina, the SMM alumina index price recorded 2937 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the previous trading day. The FOB price of Australian alumina recorded 342 dollars/ton, which was unchanged from the previous trading day. In terms of alumina futures: On September 20th, the main alumina contract was opened at 3069 yuan/ton and closed at 3069 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. 62525 transactions were completed throughout the day, a decrease of 36900 transactions compared to the previous trading day. The daily position was 70954, a decrease of 771 transactions compared to the previous trading day. The price fluctuated during the day, with the highest price reaching 3083 yuan/,The lowest price reaches 3043 yuan/ton. In terms of night trading, the main contract for alumina was opened at 3071 yuan/ton and closed at 3083 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton compared to yesterday's afternoon close, and the price fluctuated during the night. Recently, the price of alumina has remained high and fluctuating, and attention needs to be paid to specific situations such as warehouse receipt registration and delivery. In terms of supply and demand, due to factors such as maintenance in some regions, the phased supply of alumina market is still tightening; However, downstream electrolytic aluminum maintains a high operating rate, and the demand for aluminum oxide has not significantly decreased yet. However, in the medium to long term, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Yunnan have basically completed the resumption of production, with only 20 tons of replacement capacity waiting to be put into operation. Downstream demand growth space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see for the current price level in the short term.
Strategy
Unilateral: aluminum: cautious with more; aluminum: neutral.
Risk
1. Supply side changes exceeded expectations. 2. Domestic consumption has boosted. 3. Liquidity changes exceeded expectations.
